Zijin Mining (601899) Company Comments: Public Offering Landed to Improve Financial Expenses to Achieve Leap Development in Three Years

Zijin Mining (601899) Company Comments: Public Offering Landed to Improve Financial Expenses to Achieve Leap Development in Three Years
Event: The company announcement intends to start with 3.41 yuan / share issue 23.4.6 billion shares, expected 11.Start online purchase at 15 and start at 11.21 resumes trading, the company announces the output plan for the next three years every year, and mainly achieves leapfrog development with copper. The underlying assets have significantly increased the company’s resource reserves, and the public offering is expected to bring improvements in financial expenses and dilution in a reasonable range.The company’s public offering raised 80 million U.S. dollars to replace the 100% equity of Nevsun, a copper-zinc-gold resource company (at a price of 93).600 million), significantly increasing the company’s resource reserves.The amount of zinc metal mainly produced in Bisha copper-zinc ore is 312.81 Cobalt and copper average grade 1.02%, the amount of copper metal is 65.54 years, with an annual output of 12.5 zinc zinc, copper 1.7 Initially (2018), the company’s operation and management optimized production and service life, and quickly contributed profits.Timok acquired the lower ore belt to amplify the synergy effect. The total amount of copper metal in the upper and lower ore zones of the Timok copper-gold mine was 1,551.89 Cobalt and 374 Gold.76 tons, which is expected to be put into production in 2021, and the copper and gold output will continue to climb in the long term. The company adheres to the strategic layout of resources, enhances the company’s core competitiveness and international industry level, and high-quality projects continue to bring improved cash flow and profit growth.This public offering 23.4.6 billion shares correspond to the diluted existing share capital10.2% is within a reasonable range. If the public offering is completed in full to improve financial costs, the expected annualized financial costs will be realized after the completion of the offering.About 500 million. The overseas layout continues to make efforts, and the 都市夜网 three-year plan realizes the leapfrog development. The company announces the output in the next three years. By 2022, the company’s mineral gold, zinc, copper, silver, and iron concentrate will reach 49-54 tons, 38-42 tons, 67-74 constant, 242-269 tons, 299-332 pointer, of which the composite length of mineral copper reaches 21.9-26%.The company’s counter-cyclical expansion, the Kolwezi copper mine, and the Duobaoshan copper mine have gradually reached capacity. The technical renovation and expansion of the RTB-Bor copper mine acquired in 2018 (forward 12 inches), the Timok copper (gold) mine in Serbia,The Kamoa-Kakura copper mine in the Congo has the resources to form a world-class mine, and its high grade will achieve high efficiency. It is expected to start production in 2021 and achieve 30% of the designed production capacity,武汉夜生活网 and 70 in 2022.%, Reaching production in 2023.With continued efforts in overseas layout, it is expected to achieve leapfrog development and truly leapfrog the global resource leader. Earnings forecast and rating: According to the company’s latest production plan, we fine-tune the company’s net profit attributable to the mother for 2019-2021 to 42.2, 48.5, 66.10,000 yuan, corresponding to the EPS before the public offering of 0.18 yuan / share, 0.21 yuan / share, 0.29 yuan / share, (corresponding to 0 after the public offering.17 yuan / share, 0.19 yuan / share, 0.26 yuan / share), corresponding to the current closing price of PE.8, 16.3, 12 times, according to the assessment method of apportionment business, the copper, zinc, and gold businesses are given 20, 10, and 25 times respectively, and the company’s market value reaches $ 129.8 billion. Considering the corresponding volume of the company’s business, the performance elasticity of each sector is relatively low.The comprehensive assessment 19 times in 2021 assumes that the company’s market value space by 2021 will advance to USD 1255-1298 billion. Maintain BUY rating. Risk reminder: Kamoa’s exploration reserves increase risk, development progress is less than expected risk, development cost is seriously higher than expected risk, copper and zinc prices fall risk

Lianchuang Electronics (002036) Semi-annual Report Review: Interim Report Meets Expectations

Lianchuang Electronics (002036) Semi-annual Report Review: Interim Report Meets Expectations
Revenue and profit maintained steady growth, and it is expected that the volume will increase rapidly in the second half of the year.2019H1, company revenue 26.700 million, an annual increase of 21.48%; net profit attributable to mother 1.22 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.96%.In terms of semi-annual performance, the company’s revenue and profits have achieved steady growth.In Q2 2019, the company’s revenue was 16.20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.67%, an increase of 55.40%; net profit attributable to mother 0.82 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.36%, an increase of 102 from the previous month.16%. Optics is the key to the company’s performance turning point this year, and it is also the main axis of future investment logic.In the first half of the year, optical revenue was 4.6.6 billion, an annual increase of 88%.The rapid growth of optics is in line with our judgment that the company’s optical business will spend more points and will soon be heavy.In the first half of the year, the company’s optical business has been further strengthened, and other mobile phone screen optical fingerprint lenses and 1G6P lenses were only replaced in the second half of the year, and mobile phone lenses and module production capacity will also increase and increase in the second half of the year.The key is also the main axis of future investment logic. The initial volume of automotive lenses has been increased to expand market share.In the field of automotive lenses, the company’s supply of products to Tesla, Valeo and other customers is stabilizing.The car lens has gradually shifted from pioneering to market promotion, gradually expanding the company’s market share.In the first half of the year, Daliguang announced that the car lens will no longer be replenished, and it will withdraw from the car market in a low profile.The automotive industry is more suitable for a company that has both glass and plastic capacity and technology. New camera lens products have been launched, and mobile phone modules are basically full.The company’s under-screen optical lenses have been recognized by customers of well-known international mobile phone brands. Large-scale expansion will begin in August. Mass production of 1G6P high-end mobile phone lenses is expected in the second half of the year.The final phone lens production capacity is expected to be 8?10KK / month.The mobile phone camera module currently has 上海夜网论坛 a full production of 5KK / month, and it is planned to expand to 8KK / month in the second half of the year, which mainly supplies ODMs such as Huaqin and Wingtech. Profit forecast and investment advice: What do we expect the company to do in 2019?The net profit attributable to mothers will be 3 in 2021.2, 4.8,6.1 trillion, corresponding to the current total PE of 23.5, 15.7, 12.4 times, continue to recommend! Risk reminder: the progress of the new fingerprint products under the screen is less than expected, the launch of the glass-plastic hybrid is less than expected, and the car camera market is less than expected

Wangneng Environment (002034) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Deducting Non-Net Profit Increased 39% Reserve Capacity Released Smoothly

Wangneng Environment (002034) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Deducting Non-Net Profit Increased 39% Reserve Capacity Released Smoothly

This report reads: The company achieved non-attributable net profit for the first three quarters of 20193.

0.8 billion, an increase of 39%, in line with expectations.

The reserve capacity was gradually released, and the growth logic was smoothly realized.

Investment points:夜来香体验网 investment advice.

Maintain profit forecast: Net profit for 2019-2021 will be 4 respectively.



3.1 billion with an EPS of 1.



51 yuan.

Maintain target price of 25.

13 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Performance is in line with expectations.

1) The company achieved revenue in the first three quarters of 20198.

5.9 billion, an increase of 40% over the same period; net non-attributable profit3.

0.8 billion, an annual growth of 39%.

The company’s air force forecasts that the net profit for the first three quarters of 2019 will increase by 30% to 47% per year, and the actual performance will be within the forecast range.

2) Revenue in the single quarter of 2019Q2.

9.1 billion, net of non-attributable net profit1.

04 billion.

3) The company also announced at the same time that it is expected to realize attributable net profit in 20193.


2 billion, an increase of 27%-37% over the same period, and performance is in line with expectations.

The rapid growth of performance is mainly due to the contribution of new production projects.

1) In the third quarter of 2019, the company added Xuchang (2250 tons), Zhoushan (600 tons) and other projects into operation.

By the third quarter of 2019, the company has added a total of 5,000 tons / day of throwing projects in 2019. The total operating capacity has increased by 40% compared with the end of 2018. The cumulative release of reserves has been released and the growth logic has been smoothly realized.

2) In 2019, the company will add the third phase of supervision (600 tons) and the third phase of Shantou Chenghai (750 tons), and look forward to more new projects in 2019Q4.

At present, the company still has a total of 9,550 tons of production capacity to be put into operation. The ratio of the total capacity in hand to the capacity in operation is 155%; the company’s capital expenditure is 17.

600 million, construction in progress 24.

200 million, full growth momentum.

3) At present, the company’s asset-liability ratio is 53%, and the monetary funds in hand are 10%.

800 million, although civilians announced the withdrawal 14.

The application for 500 million convertible bonds, but the financing strength is still continuing, is a sufficient guarantee for the landing of the project in hand, and it is expected that the reserve 武汉桑拿project will continue to be put into production.

Profitability remained high and cash flow was good.

1) The company’s gross profit margin in 2019Q3 is 54.

A record high of 22% and a net profit margin of 36.
2) Cash ratio is 96.

78% and net present ratio of 135.

84%, all maintained high levels.

Risk reminder: Changes in the subsidy policy of the waste incineration industry, and the project’s production progress exceeds expectations.

Open-pit coal industry (002128): the first half of the year completed the acquisition of the Group’s electrolytic aluminum assets

Open-pit coal industry (002128): the first half of the year completed the acquisition of the Group’s electrolytic aluminum assets
Core point of view: In 深圳桑拿网 the first half of the year, the company’s net profit attributable to the mother increased by approximately 12% per year. The coal power business contributed to the profit growth. The company disclosed its 2019 interim report.3.3 billion / 13.74/13.67 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.41% / 11.75% / 9.55% /, EPS is 0.83 yuan.The rapid growth of the company’s performance in the first half of the year was mainly due to: 1) benefiting from the comprehensive growth of coal in the first half of the year, while also increasing solar and wind power revenue, the company’s operating profit in the first half of the year increased by approximately 74.97 million yuan.2) Investment income in the first half of the year increased by approximately 59.5 million yuan. In the first half of the year, the company’s comprehensive coal bids increased by a maximum of 16.3%, net profit per ton of coal is about 48 yuan Coal business: According to the interim report, the company’s current coal production capacity is 4,600 tons, and the first half of the year’s coal output is 2,452 positions, each time -2.0%; coal sales 2463 finally, until -1.9%; Calculated ton of coal revenue, cost, gross profit were 141 yuan, 70 yuan and 71 yuan, respectively, longer +16.3%, +24.0%, +9.6%; net profit per ton of coal is about 48 yuan, +16 in ten years.8%. Power business: At present, the subsidiary Tongliao Huolinhe Kengkou Power has an installed capacity of 1200MW.In the first half of the year, the company’s overall power generation and sales were 31.0 billion kWh, 27.100 million kWh, +6 for ten years.2%, +2.6%; unit electricity revenue, cost and gross profit are 0.33, 0.19 and 0.14 yuan, +19 for ten years.0%, +22.9%, 13.9%. The acquisition of 51% equity of Huomei Hongjun was completed, and the net profit of electrolytic aluminum business increased slightly in the first half of the year.9% According to the company announcement, the company acquired 51% of Huomei Hongjun held by Mengdong Energy, a major shareholder of the company, and completed the transfer formalities and relevant industrial and commercial change registration on May 17. Huomei Hongjun Aluminum Power Company has become the company’s controllingSubsidiary.The total transaction consideration for this acquisition is 27.1 ppm (share consideration of 14.0 ppm + cash consideration of 13.1 ppm), and the net assets of Huomei Hongjun at the end of June 2019 was 46.400 million, estimated to buy about PB.1 times. At present, Huomei Hongjun has a total capacity of 121 tons of electrolytic aluminum (the actual production capacity is 86 tons, and another 35 tons is still under construction). It also has its own installed power of 2.1 million kilowatts (including 1.8 million kilowatts of thermal power and 30 wind powerTen thousand kilowatts).According to the interim report, Huohuo Hongjun achieved net profit in the first half of the year.30,000 yuan, +0 a year.92%.The output and sales volume of electrolytic aluminum in the first half were 43.7 early, 43.1 Initially, at least +2.2%, +4.2%; Estimated ton of electrolytic aluminum revenue, the cost is 1.180,000 yuan / ton, 1.07,000 yuan / ton, -2 per second.4%, -0.2%; net profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum is 234.8 yuan / ton, ten years -1.2%. Profit forecast and investment advice The company is located in Mengdong. The open-pit mining conditions are good, and the company’s ton coal production cost is basically the lowest in the industry.At the same time, the company’s Changxie coal accounted for about 80%, and the profitability of the coal business was high.After the company completed the acquisition of 51% equity of Huomei Hongjun, it realized the integrated operation of coal, electricity and aluminum.As the company has its own power plant, the cost advantage of electrolytic aluminum business is 佛山桑拿网 outstanding.In addition, the company is also actively deploying new energy business, and it is also expected to expand the company’s development space in the medium and long term.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 1.28, 1.39, 1.45 yuan / share, corresponding to 19 years of PE about 6.5 times, taking into account the estimates of comparable companies and the growth rate of the company’s performance, giving the company a PE of 8 times in 19 years, a reasonable value of 10.23 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Lower-than-expected downstream demand, lower-than-expected coal and aluminum prices, and new energy business development is worse than expected.

CYTS (600138): Steady operation of core scenic spots awaits integration

CYTS (600138): Steady operation of core scenic spots awaits integration

Report Summary: Events: On August 15, the company released its semi-annual report for 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 58 in the first half of the year.

5.3 billion / + 5.

13%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

82 ppm / -5.

61%; net profit after deduction to mother 2.

5.8 billion / -15.


Integrated marketing benefits the performance of the World Garden Fair, and the industry’s influence has gradually increased.

The company’s affiliated China Youth League actively carried out many activities such as the World Garden Fair, the “Belt and Road” summit forum, and achieved a 10% increase in integrated marketing revenue.

29%, net profit increased by 18.

37%, the influence of the industry has gradually increased.

The company’s Q2 return to mother’s performance increased by 3.

92%, deducting non-performance decreased by 4.

45%, the decrease is narrower than Q1, mainly due to (1) the increase in labor costs brought about by the adjustment of social security bases (no longer affected in the second half of the year); (2) the increase in financial costs caused by the expansion of the loan scale; (3) Gubei Real EstateThe impact of reduced investment returns.

The smooth transition of passenger flow in Wuzhen continues, and Gubei is still in the stage of development.

In 2019, H1 Wuzhen is expected to receive a maximum of 445 tourists.

980,000 / -0.

80%, the unit price of 187.

5 yuan / +1.

2%, basically unchanged from the same period last year.

Wuzhen continues to promote the structural transformation of attractions and strives to build a “vacation-meeting-culture” town brand. The brand influence will increase and become a higher market bargaining power.

Gubei Water Town received 100 tourists in the first half of the year.

680,000 / -8.

81%, achieved revenue of 4.

20 ppm / -8.

04%, affected by the decrease in investment income of the real estate companies participating in the joint venture, the net profit also decreased by 47.

23%, the drainage effect of the World Expo in the future and the improvement and promotion of major traffic problems will bring about a turning point in passenger flow.

Backed by Everbright Group’s synergy advantages, the 武汉夜生活网 promotion of Gubei’s equity is good for healthy development.

In 2018, the China Everbright Group, where the company is located, launched an overall strategic optimization operation. The medium and long-term line is optimistic about the size and coordination of the group’s customers and resources.

Gubei Water Town’s equity transfer has been completed, the company’s influence has been further enhanced, and the increase in the shareholding ratio will help proactive management enthusiasm and promote the healthy development of the Gubei scenic spot business.

Investment suggestion: The company’s integrated marketing business has a strong performance, and the attractions business continues to explore the value of single customers. In the future, it is recommended to pay attention to the opening of Puyuan in 2020 and the Everbright Group’s collaborative cooperation.

The company is expected to achieve operating income of 128 in 2019-2021.

89, 137.

78, 147.

4.2 billion; net profit attributable to mother 6.

34, 6.

91, 7.

55 trillion, EPS is 0.88, 0.

95, 1.

04 yuan, corresponding to PE are 13.

91X, 12.

76X, 11.


Underestimate the leading attractions and maintain the “highly recommended” level in the midline.

Risk Warning: 1.

Adverse weather effects; 2.

Customer unit price increase was less than expected; 3.

Macroeconomic fluctuations

Science and Technology Board purchase strategy-Biotech (688177)

Science and Technology Board purchase strategy-Biotech (688177)
This report reads:武汉夜生活网 We recommend that Biotech’s reference estimate range is between 0% -9% quantile, corresponding to a price of 32.71 yuan -33.36 yuan. Abstract: On January 23, 2020, the actual quotation of the quotation of the scientific and technological innovation board company Ruisong Technology fell below the 5% quantile, and the market entered the stage of effective information and low-price gaming among institutions.Considering the market’s downward game after the price is anchored, it is recommended that the price of the Biotite quotes quoted on February 6th be considered at the 9% scale. Taking into account, it is estimated that the inquiry range of Biotech on February 6 will be between 0% and 9%, corresponding to 32.71 yuan -33.36 yuan. Biotech focuses on the development of innovative drugs and biosimilars for the treatment of 北京夜生活网 tumors, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases and other major diseases that endanger human life or health.According to the Frost & Sullivan Report, the scale of Chinese biopharmaceuticals is expected to reach 1 by 2030.The global scale of biosimilars in 2018 was USD 7.2 billion, and it is expected to reach USD 1644 in 2030. The scale of China will increase from 1.6 billion in 2018 to USD 58.9 billion in 2030.The company has not generated revenue for the moment. At present, the company has 1 product approved for marketing. There are 4, 1, and 4 products in Phase I, II, and III clinical research stages, of which 3 are biosimilars and 6Innovative medicine, the company has reserved 11 research projects for tumor immunotherapy, autoimmune disease, cardiovascular disease and so on.In the future, the company will accelerate the process of product industrialization and marketization, realize the listing and sales of a variety of drugs under research, and focus on the research and development of innovative drugs and biosimilars. Based on the market value and product line profile of listed companies, we chose Fuhong Hanlin (2696.HK) is a comparable company. Biotech and Fuhong Hanlin have been approved to be listed on the market and the number of products in Phase II and Phase III clinical research is the same. However, Biotech has only 4 products in Phase I clinical research.Fuhong Hanlin owns five products, and Fuhong Hanlin’s product HLX01 (Han Li Kang) has been commercialized earlier, and is used in clinical quantities.Therefore, based on the market value of Fuhong Hanlin, we give a certain discount to Biotech, based on its estimated total share capital after the issue is not more than 410,080,000 shares. The estimated market size after the issue is 13.5-16.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the issue price range.Is 32.71-39.95 yuan. Risk reminders: (1) The actual quotation center is gradually moving downwards. Be wary of 10% high price rigidity to eliminate risks and the second game behavior on the day of market quotation.(2) The progress of drug development and marketing was less than expected.

Tianfeng Securities: In addition to the recession, the US debt yield inversion also means?

Tianfeng Securities: In addition to the recession, the US debt yield inversion also means?

Author: Tianfeng Securities Songxue Tao, head of macroeconomic research, source: Xuetao macro notes March 22, three months * 10-year US bond yields since July 2007 reproduced upside down, caused markets to US recessionhighest.

We summarize the past six months of research on U.S. debt inversion, U.S. economic fundamentals, U.S. monetary policy, and the U.S. stock market, and conduct a detailed review of the current U.S. economy and financial markets: First, what does U.S. debt inversion mean?

  ”The inversion of the U.S. debt yield curve usually occurs at the end of the economic expansion period and the beginning of the recession period. According to historical experience, interest rate inversion is the leading indicator of economic recession.

“-” Performance of Assets Before and After U.S. Treasury Yield Inversion “August 7, 2018”, the current global economic pattern is in 1999-2000. It is expected that U.S. Treasury interest rates will be inverted from the end of 18 to early 19It entered the post-cycle from the end of 18 to the beginning of 19, and entered the recession from the end of 19 to the beginning of 20.

“-Asset Performance Before and After U.S. Treasury Yield Inversion” 2018-8-7Is not the performance of economies outside the United States.

“-Performance of Large-Scale Assets at the End of Interest Rate Raise” 2018-12-9 “Inverted US debt is not a necessary condition to trigger a global stock disaster in the short term, and the performance of equity assets is more a substitute for the spread and timing of the economic recession.

“-Performance of Large-Class Assets at the End of Interest Rate Increase” 2018-12-9 “After this round of upside down, US debt will usher in a trendy bull market, the equity markets of advanced economies will decline, and the equity markets of emerging economiesIn the short term, it is inevitable that it will continue to kill, but in the medium term, it will be three years.

The US dollar will fluctuate because of risk aversion in the short term, and will gradually weaken in the medium term.

-“Performance of Large-Scale Assets at the End of Interest Rate Increase” December 9, 2018 “Demand will be transformed into the pricing logic of commodities; weaker U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields and risk events will surely make the bottom of supported gold,In reducing absences, gold is just a central shock.

“-” Performance of Large-Scale Assets at the End of Interest Rate Increase “2018-12-9 II. Looking at the current state of the US economy from seven dimensions” Looking at the leading indicators of fixed asset investment and consumption, the US economic growth rate will decline in 2019Combined with inventory data that is sensitive to the inflection point of the cycle, the inflection point of the US business cycle is now on the horizon.

“-Revisiting when the U.S. economy peaked.” 2018-11-9 “The decline after the U.S. business cycle peaks will not be elegant and moderating, even fierce and rapid.

-“Revisiting when the U.S. economy peaks” 2018-11-9 “The current stage of the U.S. economy may be more late than expected by the Federal Reserve and the market. Economic data may decline rapidly in the next 1-2 quarters.

“-” Several dimensions to see the US economy since the beginning of the year “2019-3-5 In 2019, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 59 from September 18th.

8 quickly fluctuated to 52 in March 19th.

5. The inflection point of inventory, increase, and investment has clearly emerged. The growth rate of GDP has entered a period of decline. The inflection point of consumption and employment may have appeared, and data needs to be continuously confirmed.

  Inventory: The manufacturer’s inventory of this round began to go to inventory in January 18, and the inventory of retailers began to accumulate inventory in June 18, so Q3 of 18 should be the high point of GDP growth rate for this cycle.

From the perspective of the inventory cycle, the US economic growth rate 北京夜生活网 is expected to bottom out in Q4 of 19, and the growth rate will rapidly decline before reaching the bottom.

  The highest industry: industrial indicators, maximum production capacity and industrial added value growth rates of several tens have all continuously dropped from the 18-year high of Q3-Q4, and the downward turning point replaced by industry has basically changed.

  Investment: Since the growth rate of US equipment investment began to gradually increase in Q3 of 18, leading indicators show that the growth rate of US investment will further increase.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI New Orders Index increased from 61 in November 2018.

8 once faded to 55 in February.

5. Durable goods orders (excluding transport goods) exceeded the growth rate from 8% in the summer to 4 in January.


  Real estate: US existing home sales have fallen 8 in the past 12 months.


Existing home sales accounted for 90% of US home sales, with 4.94 million homes in January the lowest since November 2015.

Historically, real estate sales started to pick up after the Fed cut rates.

As existing home sales lead real estate investment, new home construction is expected to stabilize and recover in 19-20 years.

  Labor market: Labor market data is slightly contradictory.

The unemployment rate is still at a historically low level, but the tightness of the labor market, which is completely negatively related to the unemployment rate, has dropped from the high point of August last year, reflecting the active turnover rate of employees’ confidence in the labor market.Back down.

The decline in the number of hours worked also marks the downturn of the economic cycle and the inflection point of the unemployment rate.

According to historical experience, after the inflection point, the unemployment rate will slowly rise and rise for about one year, and then accelerate. Then the economy will slide into a recession after the unemployment rate accelerates.

  Consumption: The apex of US consumption growth this round has already appeared in Q3 of 18 years.

Retail sales in December 18 increased by 1 over the previous month.

6%, weak rebound in January (0% month-on-month increase.

2%), core consumption data plummeted; Michigan consumer confidence index overall growth in January-February 19; the actual growth rate of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) fell slightly in Q4 18.

  Exports: By replacing the growth rates of other major economies, the growth rate of US exports began gradually in the second quarter of 2018.In the first half of 2019, the business cycles of China, Europe, and Japan continued to decline, and there is a high probability that the growth rate of US exports will continue to track the continuous global cycle.

If China-US trade achieves a substantial immediate advantage, expansion will definitely slow down the downward slope of US export growth.

  Third, the U.S. Treasury is bullish on the trend. From Q4 of 18, we are long on the U.S. Treasury: “It is expected that the U.S. Treasury will be upside down from the end of 18 to the beginning of the year. After the inversion, U.S. Treasury will usher in a trendy bull market.

“-” Performance of Assets Before and After U.S. Treasury Yield Inversion “2018-8-7” In 19 years of the US economy, a gradual fall in data will eventually lead to a bull market in U.S. Treasury yields.

“-” On the High Point of the U.S. Economy “2018-11-9” The risks of deflation outweigh the inflation in 2019. It is expected that the three major currencies in the United States, Japan, and Europe will tighten and shift to loose in 2019, and the interest rates and debts of the three major economies will be overweighted.

”——《从分歧到弥合:2019海外宏观和大类资产展望》2018-12-19  加息:确立了18年Q3美国经济和通胀的拐点后,18年Q4我们预计:“2019年美联储‘最多加息1次’,停止加息可能发生在19年Q2,而降息最快可能发生在19年底-20年初.

“-Asset Performance Before and After U.S. Bond Yield Inversion” 2018-12-9 After experiencing a change in the Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy attitude at the beginning of the year, in Q1 of 19, we expected that “the Fed will not raise interest rates in 19 years.

“-” A few dimensions to see the U.S. economy since the beginning of the year “March-May 2019: The basic breakthrough rate (UIG), one of the core PCE’s leading indicators, has been trending downward since September 18, and the second of the leading indicatorsThe gap between wage growth and labor breakthroughs weakened the expected pull in 19 years.

  The bitmap of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on March 20th shows that there will be no interest rate hike in the next decade.

  Fourth, since the initial return to fundamentals after the return of U.S. stocks, the global market is at risk for two core reasons: First, the shift in the Federal Reserve ‘s monetary policy stance and the gradual follow-up of countries have brought about improvements in liquidity expectations; and second, the overall US economyIt is in the stage of “high growth of low blood sugar, the data will be intact, and it will continue to deteriorate for the time being cannot be falsified”. Therefore, risk expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals have all experienced different degrees of expected repairs. The global market is ushering in a “sweet period”.

  At the present moment, through the Fed ‘s super-expected dovish allocation to raise interest rates, the euro has launched the third round of targeted long-term refinancing (LTRO). The loose monetary policy is expected to be basically fulfilled and there will be limited space in the short term.Japan ‘s PMI average exceeded expectations, and the weakening of fundamental economic resonance has just begun.

  For U.S. stocks, we believe: “The decline in U.S. stocks is coming to an end: Many monetary policies and eventual potential bullish expectations are basically priced by the market. When the expectations are realized, the risk is difficult to continue to rise; the next stage of risk will return to the basic performancesurface.

Based on the current S & P 500 point of 2750, by the end of the year, US stocks are roughly -13%?
-23% downside.

“-” US stocks: re-selecting the direction after the return of light “, 2018-3-12 EPS expectations are too optimistic, 2019 US stocks EPS may be negative growth: the accelerated acceleration of the US economy will significantly affect corporate profits.

Historically, U.S. stock performance has a unilateral downward period of about 6-7 quarters. In the last 3 quarters of last year, the EPS growth rate of the current cycle was confirmed to be high. According to estimates, the bottom of the EPS growth rate may appear in mid-2020.

When the US manufacturing PMI is lower than 50, the EPS growth rate of US stocks will probably be negative according to historical rules, so the current market EPS is expected to have a clear downward correction possibility.

  Overseas economy weighs on U.S. stock performance: Affected by the overseas economy, U.S. trade exports are growing every 5 years from 5.

7% to 0% by the end of 18.

44% of the S & P 500’s revenue comes from overseas. The continuous change of global PMI means that the overseas economy in 19 years will continue to weigh on the performance (sales revenue and profit) of American companies in 19 years.

  It is estimated that it is difficult to continue to expand: The growth of US stocks since 19 years has mainly come from the expected expansion. The index rebound (+ 17%) is basically contributed by the expected expansion (TTM PE + 17%), and the EPS contribution is 0.

  The shift in monetary policy has been fully priced: The interest rate futures market shows that the market expects the Fed to not raise interest rates in 2019, and the probability of a rate cut once reaches 47%.

The FOMC meeting in late March confirmed the Fed’s reserve interest rate policy without interest rate hikes. In the short term, the Fed will further loosen its space, and the easing is expected to be fully priced.

  After the fundamentals deteriorate, monetary easing may also shrink: at the end of each round of interest rate hikes, monetary policy is turned to the initial stage, and economic and stock performance have not deteriorated. At this time, EPS and PE can expand simultaneously.

However, when the economy starts to accelerate downward and the performance growth rate becomes negative, the market is more worried about the deterioration of fundamentals, and even when the currency is loose, PE estimates tend to shrink.

  The market sentiment is still likely to cool down: Since the beginning of the year, the market sentiment of risky events has almost always been at the[optimistic]end. Has VIX turned all the way back since last Christmas?
15 levels.

If the risk event evolves as expected by the market, it is good to honor it; if there is a deviation from expectations, market sentiment will reverse.

From the time progress of the event, each potential bullish is expected to enter the redemption period after the end of March.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607): State-owned enterprise reform plan landing stock budget incentives to stimulate new vitality

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (601607): State-owned enterprise reform plan landing stock budget incentives to stimulate new vitality

Event: The company released the stock budget incentive plan for 2019, and plans to reward 28.42 million stock budgets to the incentive objects, accounting for 1 of the company’s share capital.

0%, the exercise price is 21.

54 yuan / share, of which 25.96 million shares were awarded for the first time, accounting for 91 of the total supplementary grants of the plan.

3%, 2.46 million copies of the budget.

The scope of the incentive is wide and strong, and it is expected to fully mobilize the team’s potential: This incentive includes 8 core senior management teams and 207 middle management personnel and core backbones. Among them, the senior management team authorized a total of 2.91 million copies, and the per capita authorization was 36.

40,000 copies, the rest are 11 per capita.

10,000 copies, follow 21.

The authorized price of 54 yuan / share, the total market value of the first authorized share is 5.

600 million, with an average market value of 783 executives.

50,000 yuan, other people per capita ranking 239.

9 million, which is far higher than the average annual salary level per capita, reflecting the wide scope and strength of the latest incentive scheme, which is expected to fully stimulate the enthusiasm of the company’s senior management and core backbone personnel and improve the company’s operating efficiency.

Both the quality and quantity of this incentive plan are considered, and the quality of profit and the evaluation of R & D innovation are the highlights: In this incentive plan, according to the company’s “quality, scale, innovation” as the core strategic guidance, the evaluation indicators take into account performance, profit quality and R & D innovationEtc., 1) Revenue: Based on the average operating income from 2016 to 2018 as the base, the compound revenue from 2020-2022 will not be less than 10.

0%, 10.

0%, 10.

0%, and the revenue scale is not less than 175 billion, 185 billion, 2000 ppm; 2) ROE (deduction): the company’s average average return on net assets in 2020-2022 is not less than 12.

0%, 12.

2%, 12.

4%; 3) R & D end: The company’s R & D investment will not be less than 900 million in 2020-2022,9.

5 billion, 10.

0 ppm; 4) Performance comprehensive index: 2020-2022 will not be lower than the 75th place of the target company.

In terms of subdivisions, in this performance comprehensive index evaluation system, the weighted ratios of return on net assets, industrial income, business income, and R & D expenses are respectively 40%, 30%, 10%, and 20%, which further reflects one time.The improvement of the quality of profit, the improvement of the income structure (more emphasis on the growth of industrial sales), and the improvement of the R & D expenditure will help the company gradually replace the R & D innovative enterprise.

Profit forecast and rating.

We expect EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

48 yuan, 1.

66 yuan and 1.

83 yuan, corresponding to the current expected estimates are 15 times, 13 times and 12 times.

As one of the leaders in the domestic pharmaceutical trade field, this vigorous incentive plan is expected to fully 杭州桑拿网 stimulate the leading enthusiasm, which is the basis for the company’s long-term stable growth and growth, with a target price of 26.

6 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: product development may be less than expected; drug tendering significantly reduces price risk; and industry competition risks intensifying.

Industrial Bank (601166) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Optimizing Capital Negative Structure and Profits Steady and Rising

Industrial Bank (601166) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Optimizing Capital Negative Structure and Profits Steady and Rising

The company’s balance sheet continues to be optimized. The allocation strategy is more flexible under ample liquidity environment, and the volume and price factors remain stable.

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Industrial Bank’s return to net profit for the first three quarters increased by 8.

52%, an increase from the first half (+6 in ten years.


The highest revenue growth rate remains at a high level (+22 in the first half / first three quarters).

5% / 19.

2%), the net interest rate and non-interest income are slightly lower than the growth rate due to the high base in the same period last year, but still at a relatively high level; instead of the provision of a small amount of assets in the third quarter, asset impairment lossesMonthly growth of 15.

6% (+24 in the first half).

2%), and a decrease of 8.

6%, which has contributed to the rebound in profit growth.

In the third quarter, the scale of assets remained flat month-on-month, but the length of structural adjustments.

Q3’s total assets were -0.

11% (Q1 / Q2 were -0.

21% / + 4.


While the overall scale has remained stable, the structure has changed. 1) Loans are still actively invested, and new loans in Q3 amounted to 13.62 billion (Q1 / Q2 increased by 169.5 billion / 147 billion), which were mainly invested in retail and discounting (an increase of 82.9 billion) and577.9 billion), and general public loans decreased by 4.6 billion; 2) Non-credit assets have been substantially downgraded, especially debt investment and other debt investment in financial investment have decreased by more than 110 billion (considered to be related to non-standard), the same industryBuy-back resale and inter-bank storage also experienced pressure drops.

The balance sheet structure was optimized to help maintain the net interest margin stable.

The company’s net interest rate income in the first three quarters increased by 8 per year.

5% (+9 in the first half).

4%), of which Q3 single quarter still increased 4 quarter-on-quarter.

8% (mainly because interest rate expenditure increased by 1 in QoQ.

4% is lower than the growth rate of interest income2.


The company disclosed in its financial report that “the interest margin remained stable.” We 夜来香体验网 reportedly benefited from the optimization of the asset-liability structure: 1) the asset side, the proportion of loans increased, especially retail loans, which helped stabilize the return on assets; 2) liabilitiesThe proportion of deposits continued to rise to 58.

2% (ring ratio + 1pct).

We expect the interest margin to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and gradually the net interest margin will gradually increase.

Asset quality was generally stable, with moderate exposure and disposal rhythms in the third quarter.

Q3 company non-performing rate 1.

55% (down 1BP from the previous month), and the NPL balance increased by 18.

900 million (Q1 / Q2 increased by 2.6 billion / 1.9 billion), considering that the company’s Q3 concern rate fell by only 3BPs (Q2 decreased by 23BPs) and the concern loan balance increased by 15.

900 million (4.5 billion in Q2 reduction), 都市夜网 we estimate that the company’s new generation in the third quarter caused by poor production and overlapping efforts, but asset quality remains stable.

In terms of provisions, in the third quarter, provision for asset impairment losses was 12.5 billion, compared with the previous two quarter division reduction (Q1 / Q2 was 15.5 billion / 13.6 billion), but credit costs remained at a high level, so provision coverage ratioA slight increase from the previous quarter.

35% to 197.

87% . Risk factor: Asset quality worse than expected.

Investment suggestion: The company’s balance sheet continues to be optimized. The allocation strategy is more flexible under ample liquidity environment, and the volume and price factors remain stable.

Maintain EPS forecast for common shareholders of the parent company in 2019/203.
37 yuan, currently corresponding to June 2019.

06xPE / 0.


Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Xintaizheng (002968) coverage report for the first time: Basic property + smart technology dual engine drive to help the National Gate boom

Xintaizheng (002968) coverage report for the first time: “Basic property + smart technology” dual engine drive to help the “National Gate” boom

Xindazheng Property: Make the City Better Chongqing Xindazheng Property Group Co., Ltd. was formally established in 1998. It is a city dedicated to building smart cities and public buildings and facilities, managing public, parks, aviation airports, government agencies, schools, and residential citiesIntegrated service provider for the project.

In 2018, Xintaizheng Property has 308 projects under management (of which 222 are from Chongqing), and the area under management is 53.67 million square meters (of which 35 million square meters are from Chongqing). The number of contracted projects in 2018 is 314, and the contracted area is 62.72 million square meters.
The service area covers 16 provinces and cities including Chongqing, Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, 南京夜网论坛 and Jiangsu.

At present, Xindazheng has established professional subsidiaries of facility management, environmental management, security services, catering services, and commercial services, which are responsible for specialized business and independent operations.

Financial situation: The main business income in 2016-18 was 6.

2.1 billion, 7.

6.7 billion, 8.

8.5 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years in 2018.


(1) Property management services: Revenue from property management services in 2016-18 was 5, respectively.

5.1 billion, 6.

8.9 billion, 8.

5.0 billion, an annual increase of 16 in 2018.


(2) Property value-added services: Revenue from property management services in 2016-18 was zero.

5.8 billion, 0.

6.6 billion, 0.

710,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years in 2018.


The company’s net profit attributable to its mother was 56.64 million, 70.66 million, 88.88 million yuan, each time +24.

66%, 18% net interest rate 10%.

Deeply cultivating the public property sector, leading the market-oriented operation capability. The New Taisho Property Group will continue to position its future strategic positioning in the urban public property sector while maintaining its steady growth in basic property management services.”Management” aims to build a “Smart Service” business model for smart operations and establish a complete path to “Smart Operations”.

The airport property projects in the public properties of Xintaizheng Property have been developing rapidly for a long time and are expected to become the engine that will drive the company’s rapid growth and expand the country’s layout.

The project of Beijing Daxing International Airport undertaken by Xindazheng Property has great development potential, which is conducive to improving service capabilities, brand awareness, and creating wider profitable space.

According to the “2019 China Top 100 Real Estate Service Enterprises Report” issued by the Middle Finger Institute, Xintaizheng Property was listed as “2019 China’s Leading Enterprise in Market-oriented Operation of the Property Management Industry”.

First coverage, buy rating.

We expect the company’s revenues to be 11 in 2019-21.

2 billion, 14.

200 million and 18.

0 million yuan, net profit attributable to the mother is 1.

100 million, 1.

470,000 yuan, 2.

10,000 yuan.

We give Xintaizheng 28-30xPE in 2020, corresponding to a target market value of 4.2 billion-4.5 billion.

Risk reminder: the risk of rising labor costs, the risk of business expansion, the risk of excessive concentration of business areas, the risk of loss of core business personnel, the risk of failing to pay the social security repayment for all employees, and assessing the risk