After the epidemic examination: the property management industry welcomes the opportunity to reshuffle
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Original title: After the epidemic examination, the property management industry ushered in the “touchstone” of the industry reshuffle opportunity. The quality of service provided by the property company is clear at a glance.
The sudden outbreak of new crown pneumonia caused the stock market to encounter the “black swan incident”.
Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index has gradually decreased by 1.
At 18%, when the stock market was severely green, the property sector bucked the trend and the combined property companies continued to create new listings.
Riverside Service (03316.
HK), New City Wyatt Service (01755.
HK), investment surplus (001914.
SZ) In the same year, the internal gradual expansion range exceeded 30%.
The capital performance of property companies once again provides a window for industry observation.
Many experts believe that under the epidemic situation, property companies’ anti-cycle, anti-risk, policy support and other attributes are significantly reflected.
Property fee income is stable in economic fluctuations, and is not affected by factors such as unrestricted consumption preferences and investment needs, and it is continuously defensive.
However, it needs to be seen that under the black swan epidemic, the property management industry generally lacks response experience.
So far, there are still residents in Wuhan who report that the epidemic prevention measures in the residential quarters are not satisfactory and that the property companies have “absent”.
Rising daily costs, insufficient material reserves, and ineffective implementation of epidemic prevention measures. After a big wave of sand washing, the property management industry will face a real shuffle.
Before the property resisted the epidemic-resistant road, the community felt that no one had managed it. Recently, I finally saw the killing equipment, but I only sprayed it downstairs.
“Since Wuhan closed the city, Yang Lan still has a lot of thoughts.
Yang Lan is the owner of Yikang Garden in Wuhan’s Baibuting Community. Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the community has been put on the limelight due to a gathering of tens of thousands of people and a hot building.
This is not an isolated case. Many residents in Wuhan reported to reporters that epidemic prevention measures were not in place.
On February 12, Li Qing’s community had just begun to seal and control.
Soldier, her community has been diagnosed with 22 cases and 65 suspected (fever) patients, but no one took temperature at the gate of the community, residents were free to enter, and no necessary measures were taken.
The epidemic situation has become the “touchstone” of the industry, and the quality of service provided by the property company is clear at a glance.
As of now, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Ningbo, Nanning and other cities have implemented closed community management, and property companies have become a key part of the epidemic.
However, in practice, property anti-epidemic is not without pressure.
”The first is the management challenges, including insufficient epidemic prevention knowledge, insufficient material reserves, frontline staff’s understanding of epidemic prevention and the implementation of epidemic prevention measures, and other issues; the second is the service challenges, such as the self-isolation of owners, there will be some psychological barriers, whether property servicesEase.
“Said Chen Jing, general manager of New Hope Service.
Liu He, the security guard of Jilin Polylin Language Community, has a deep understanding.
“At the beginning, some owners didn’t understand, didn’t cooperate, and asked us instead.
Owners need to take a temperature when they go home?
Why not allow relatives and friends to come in?
Some people also had disputes with the security.
Liu He mentioned the pain points of closed management.
The relevant person in charge of Midea Property also told reporters that from January 27, the company will implement the closed management and transfer of parks in more than 200 projects across the country, including restricting or prohibiting non-owners and other unrelated persons and vehicles from entering, and customers and staff in and out.100% temperature measurement, proper closing of some entrances and other alternatives.
”But because the epidemic coincides with the Spring Festival, the closure measures of the park have affected the custom of the owners visiting relatives and friends, and some residents have reacted and made complaints.
The above-mentioned person in charge said that through large-scale epidemic prevention propaganda and contacting local streets at the same time, neighborhood committees jointly launched epidemic prevention work, and residents gradually expressed their understanding and cooperation with closed management.
At the same time, the epidemic situation has brought cost pressure on the scale of property companies, including the cost of procurement of epidemic prevention materials and soft labor costs.
Luo Chuansong, president of Chongqing Real Estate Association and general manager of Jinke Service, imitated weighing. Taking the example of Jinke service in management project, the cost of epidemic prevention property needs 1,000 yuan per day and 30,000 yuan per month. The cost increase accounts for 10% -20%.
Generally speaking, in the company’s budget expenditure, labor costs account for a relatively large amount.Blessing Life Service (03686.
HK) as an example. In the first half of last year, the company expanded by 1.
2.9 billion, employee benefits expenditure accounted for 40.57 million; Poly Real Estate (06049.
HK) Service costs for the same period last year totaled 21.
56 billion, of which staff costs reached 11.
Employees returned to work during the epidemic, again expanding budgetary expenditures.
“Affected by the epidemic, many industries have laid off workers.
The labor cost of Poly Property is also under great pressure.
“Poly Property said that it is recommended that property companies that have new recruits during the epidemic should provide more subsidies such as overtime, overtime work and meals to reduce the increase in costs during the epidemic.
The Bank of America research report believes that although the epidemic prevention and control has increased short-term pressure on the property management industry’s revenue and labor costs have increased, the government has increased its support for enterprises during the epidemic prevention and control period, which will help make up for some of the impact.Therefore, the main business of the industry is expected to remain stable.
In addition, as an employer, the property company also needs to ensure the safety of employees on the front line.
However, at present, property companies generally lack protection materials.
Property associations in Wuhan, Shandong, Henan, Chengdu and other regions have issued cancellation signals to solicit procurement channels from the society.
Taking Poly property as an example, the company stipulated that the stock of epidemic prevention materials in Wuhan should be more than 60 days, and other areas should be more than 30 days.
However, the current shortage of materials in some regions can only meet the needs of about half a month.
The most lacking of these is masks, which consume large amounts and belong to government-controlled materials in many places, and it is difficult to guarantee procurement channels.
The person in charge of Midea also said that the anti-epidemic materials can currently meet the consumption of about 30 days, but in order to protect 杭州夜生活网 the community service, the fixed consumption of property personnel is blocked, and the subsequent procurement channels are tight.need.
Accelerating the reshuffle of the industry From the perspective of epidemic response measures, property companies mainly focus on personnel management, prevention and elimination, assisting residents in purchasing living materials, and providing online medical services.
At the same time, the merged property company used big data and other means to build a smart community to help fight the epidemic.
For example, Poly Property aimed at communities with confirmed cases, increasing the frequency of disinfection and focusing on disinfection of public facilities; and provided medical masks and disinfectant solutions to businesses for free.
Midea’s real estate started to buy vegetables in the community and deliver them to home. At the same time, it launched the online free consultation service of “yunduo community” and “yunduohui”, and the owners can initiate consultation with doctors online for free.
After this “epidemic”, property companies will face a comprehensive inspection.
“The first is to examine the evaluation and social responsibility of the property company; the second is to examine the professionalism of the property company; the third is to examine the value creation ability of the property company.
“Bran, a member of the China Resources Property Technology Committee and a deputy general manager, believes that good properties can save lives, bring epidemic prevention measures to people, and sink government governance.
Essentially, premium property companies will stand out.
“The impact of the epidemic on small-scale companies. In the medium and long term, some companies are beneficiaries.
“Xu Hangke, president of Paradise Silicon Valley Real Estate Fund, believes that listed property companies and future replacements can take advantage of capital market forces to accelerate horse racing.
In 2019, 12 property management companies entered the capital market through IPO or backdoor, which is the most alternative year since the listing of Color Life in 2014.
Entering 2020, the listing tide will continue, and Zhengrong Service, Xingsheng Commercial Management, Songdu Service, Financial Street Property and Xingxing Group Holdings will submit listing applications in just one month.
When the industry concentration needs to be improved, going public has become an important way for property companies to expand their scale and take advantage of it.
According to statistics from Kerer Securities, last year, property companies raised more than US $ 13 billion through IPOs and additional issuances. Many companies have used funds raised for strategic expansion such as receipts and mergers and acquisitions, and the proportion of funds used has exceeded 50%.
At the same time, as the real estate management has long been aimed at serving real estate, there are problems such as weak cost control, low management expense exchange rate, high vacancy rate of houses, and lack of management system, and the industry’s profitability is weak.
Property management needs a more market-based business operation mechanism to promote the development of the industry, and the spin-off of property is conducive to the industry’s marketization process.
At the same time, someone from the securities firm told reporters that the earnings ratio of the property stock market is basically more than 30 times, which clearly outperformed the market and is estimated to exceed the real estate market.
From the perspective of asset allocation, listed real estate companies are more willing to evaluate higher sectors and spin off property listings.
Capital performance in the property sector is also better.
In 2019, the individual stocks of the property management service sector in the Hong Kong stock market rose considerably. Taking four high-market companies listed after 2019 as examples, Ya Life Services gradually increased its growth by 161 in 2019.
71%; Greentown Services (02869.
HK) rose 43.63%; China Shipping Property 111.
HK); Yongsheng Living Service (01995.
With such a high average increase, the Hang Seng Index will only increase by 9 in 2019.
In 07% of cases, the property management services sector can be said to be the focus of investor attention.
When there were market voices worrying about whether the excessively rising property management sector had reached a high level, the epidemic caused the overall stock index to take place, but after a slight adjustment in the property management sector, the four stocks mentioned earlier fell and rose to record highs.
Talking about the performance of property stocks, Xu Hangke believes that the real estate industry has better cash flow and is less affected by the economic cycle, especially when the economic climate is not optimistic. It has obvious defensive attributes.
In addition, the property company is nearly 2?
It can maintain a compound area of 30% in three years. The company on the right lays the foundation for future growth through third-party expansion capabilities and acquisition and acquisition capabilities.
However, how long can this strong momentum be maintained?
Furui said that the consolidation of China’s property management sector has risen by about 30% year-to-date, but after the strong growth of the property management sector in the next two years, earnings may slow to 20%?
Furui further stated that the current expensive estimate of the property management sector is not sustainable, as most of the property management companies’ earnings growth will occur, competition among large companies will increase, and profits will be under pressure.
Currently, the growth of China Shipping Property and Greentown Services has reached its deadline, and it is decided to change the investment ratings of certain companies to inferior to the market.
The aforementioned securities firms also believe that the current industry concentration needs to be improved, and the current conversion of property stocks reflects market value.
However, the development of the transformation industry is becoming more and more mature, and the overall estimated space will improve or even decrease.
As the industry matures and becomes more rational, property companies will face a deeper reshuffle period.
Kerer believes that the total amount of mergers and acquisitions of listed property management companies in 2019 will be about 8 billion US dollars, an increase of 460%.
In 2020, the epidemic may delay the timing of mergers and acquisitions, but it is unlikely to reverse the trend.